Show Showdown's Tony Picks (Not All of Which Are "Hamilton")

If you are a reader of this blog, we probably don't have to tell you that early June means the annual Tony awards. Even if you are not a reader of this blog, we also probably don't have to tell you that Hamilton is up for a record-breaking 16 awards, and that it will very well end up getting most of them. But wait! That doesn't mean the broadcast will be dull! There have been some remarkable shows and performances on Broadway (and beyond) this year, and we’re looking forward to seeing excerpts on tv--and finding out who wins in some of the non-Hamilton categories. Plus, who knows? Major upsets happen sometimes, so it's not over 'til it's over--or at least 'til Burr takes deadly aim.

Without further ado, then, Show Showdown's humble contributors offer you our Tony predictions--and much, much more!---after the jump and this fetching picture of James Corden holding a Tony and maybe talking or singing to it.

PLAY

Wendy

Will win: The Humans

Should win: Not The Humans

I have no idea why this generic, predictable, and somewhat annoying show has been so well-received. I thought that King Charles III was way better: surprising, unusual, and thrilling.

OB/OOB shows that should have been nominated: John by Annie Baker; Schooled by Lisa Lewis; Men on Boats by Jaclyn Backhaus; Salvage by August Schulenburg

Sandra

Will win: The Humans

I’m more of a musical kind of gal, so I saw none of the plays on this list. But all my theatergoing friends (save Wendy, above) rave about this one, so I'll walk with them.

Cameron

Will win: The Humans

Should win: King Charles III

Mike Bartlett's verse dramedy is one of the most inventive, original plays to reach Broadway in years, but will have been closed for nearly six months by Tony time. Stephen Karam's highly acclaimed (and currently running) family drama seems the show to beat.

OB/OOB shows that should have been nominated: John by Annie Baker

Liz

Will win: King Charles III

Should win: Eclipsed

I'm probably wrong about both, but as I see it, The Humans got lots of nominations for OB awards (after its run at the Roundabout)--just not a lot of actual wins. If the feminist in me had her way, Eclipsed--a show about, directed, written and performed (brilliantly, all around) by women--would take the prize.

OB/OOB shows that should have been nominated: I loved Annie Baker's John--as well as Taylor Mac's Hir and Jordan Harrison's Marjorie Prime--but the winner of this year's biggets OB prizes for best play is the one I agree was the best of the year--and of some other years, to boot. Rajiv Joseph's Guards at the Taj kicked my ass last summer, burrowed its way into my guts and soul, and was enormously deserving.

MUSICAL

We're unanimous on this one: Hamilton will and should win, because duh, that's why. Cameron notes that Dear Evan Hansen should have been nominated had it been a Broadway show....which it will be this fall, so consider his shoutout an early nod for the 2017 Tonys.

REVIVAL OF A PLAY

Wendy

Will win: A View from the Bridge

OB/OOB shows that should have been nominated: Advance Man, Blast Radius, and Sovereign, all by Mac Rogers; Cloud Nine by Caryl Churchill

Sandra

Will win: A View from the Bridge

Cameron

Will and should win: A View from the Bridge

No one brings fresh perspective to well-trod ground better than Ivo van Hove, who had a smashing debut season on Broadway after years working downtown and in Europe. I expect his extraordinary production of Miller's popular Greek tragedy will bring home the statue.

OB/OOB shows that should have been nominated: Incident at Vichy, Signature Theater

Liz

Will win: The Crucible

Should win: A View from the Bridge

The Crucible is running now, is shinier and gimmickier and more star-studded than View was, and has just a titch more relevance to the current political climate. But I too think Bridge was the superior Van Hove production. Either way, I can't see this award going to someone who isn't Belgian--unless Long Day's Journey manages to upset the cart. 

REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

Wendy

Will win: The Color Purple

Sandra

Will win: Fiddler on the Roof

Should win: She Loves Me, because it’s just so damn charming.

Cameron 

Will and should win: The Color Purple

All four nominees are exceedingly fine, but never has a single production so profoundly changed the way I saw the material being presented.

Liz

Will win: The Color Purple

Should win: Spring Awakening

Deaf West's production was beautiful, moving, and made so much more sense than the original production did. Also, Deaf West just kicks ass as what they do, so there.

BOOK OF A MUSICAL AND SCORE OF A MUSICAL

We're unanimous on these, too: Lin-Manuel Miranda for Hamilton. Though Sandra gives a nod for the freshman efforts of Steve Martin and Edie Brickell (Bright Star) and to Sara Bareilles (Waitress) because it's nice to see some new composing blood on Broadway...especially since both scores were far better than U2's Spidey attempt.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY

Wendy

Will win: Mark Strong, A View from the Bridge 

OB/OOB people who should have been nominated: Ed Harris, Buried Child; Jason Howard, Advance Man, Blast Radius, and Sovereign

Sandra 

Will win: Mark Strong, A View from the Bridge

Cameron

Will win: Frank Langella, The Father

Should win: Mark Strong, A View From the Bridge

Strong gave the most finely-etched portrait of Eddie Carbone I've ever seen. But it seems that perennial favorite Langella is poised to collect his fourth career trophy. 

OB/OOB people who should have been nominated: Denis Arndt, Heisenberg

Liz

Should win: Mark Strong, A View from the Bridge or Frank Langella, The Father

This could easily go to either actor, both of whom gave exceptionally good performances. I'd love to see Strong win since he's a relative newcomer, but Langella's performance is certainly deserving.

OB/OOB people who should have been nominated: Omar Metwally and Arian Moayed, Guards at the Taj. Gentlemen, may you both get all the challenging, interesting, brilliant roles you deserve.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A PLAY

Wendy

Will win: Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night

OB/OOB people who should have been nominated: Vanessa Vache, Utility; Becky Byers, Blast Radius; Hanna Cheek, Sovereign

Sandra

Will win:  Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night 

Should win: Sophie Okonedo, The Crucible 

Okonedo was by far the most naturalistic, moving actor in the piece.

Cameron

Will win: Jessica Lange, Long Day's Journey Into Night

Should win: Sophie Okonedo, The Crucible

Lange's Mary Tyrone manages to be both manic and mannered, and left me completely cold. Nevertheless, she will claim her first career Tony. My vote goes to Okonedo, whose Elizabeth Proctor is the powerful center of an otherwise misguided production.

OB/OOB people who should have been nominated: Georgia Engel, John; Mary-Louise Parker, Heisenberg

Liz

Will and should win: Sophie Okonedo, The Crucible

Expressive, moving, and quirky, Okonedo was the anchor of the entire production. I'm sure Lange will understand.

OB/OOB people who should have been nominated: Lois Smith, John and Marjorie Prime; Kristine Nielsen, Hir.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Wendy

Will and should win: Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

Sandra

Will win: Lin-Manuel Miranda, Hamilton

Should win: Danny Burstein, Fiddler on the Roof

Burstein's ebullient Tevye finds joy in a darkening world. 

Cameron

Will and should win: Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

Burr will beat Hamilton. Sound familiar? 

OB/OOB people who should have been nominated: My eye's on you for next year, Ben Platt of Dear Evan Hansen.

Liz

Will and should win: Leslie Odom, Jr., Hamilton

I adore you, Danny Burstein, and still think you were robbed for Follies in 2011. Your day will come, I promise, and if this is the upset of the season, I'll eventually be ok with that, but Odom is extraordinary in a very tough role, and deserves the love Burr never gets.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MUSICAL

Wendy

Will and should win: Cynthia Errivo, The Color Purple

Of course, there may be a Hamilton sweep, and Phillipa Soo is amazing, but I think Erivo will slow down the Hamilton express here.

OB/OOB person who should have been nominated: Kate Baldwin, Songbird

Sandra

Will win: Philippa Soo, Hamilton

Should win: All of the nominees.

Wow … what a year for women’s performances. All were superb.

Cameron

Will and should win: Cynthia Errivo, The Color Purple"

A star is born" moments are few and far between on Broadway these days. Erivo's brilliant Broadway debut certainly qualifies.

OB/OOB person who should have been nominated: Alison Fraser, First Daughter Suite

Liz

Will and should win: Cynthia Errivo, The Color Purple

If the most jaw-dropping performance on Broadway doesn't earn this woman a Tony, I am going to fling heavy items at my television set.

FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY

We're unanimous that it will go to Reed Birney, The Humans.

Wendy

I think people will take this opportunity to thank Birney for his entire, amazing career.

Cameron

Should win: Michael Shannon, Long Day's Journey Into Night

Shannon's performance is haunting and haunted, but the award will go to stage veteran Birney.

OB/OOB person who should have been nominated: Tom Phelan, Hir; Richard Thomas, Incident at Vichy

FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY

Wendy

Will win: Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

See what I said above about Birney. Ditto.

OB/OOB people who should have been nominated: Dana Ivy, The School for Scandal; Sol Crespo, Salvage

Sandra

Will win: Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

Cameron

Will win: Megan Hilty, Noises Off

Should win: Jayne Houdyshell, The Humans

Houdyshell is overdue, but her role in The Humans is not the kind that generally wins awards. Hilty's role in Noises Off, on the other hand, is.

OB/OOB people who should have been nominated: Lois Smith, John; Tamara Tunie, Familiar

Liz

Will win: Megan Hilty, Noises Off

Should win: Pascale Armand or Saycon Sengbloh, Eclipsed

Both Armand and Sengbloh deliver vividly realized portrayals in an engaging, important play.

FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

Wendy

Will win: Daveed Diggs, Hamilton

This is a super-strong category with five Tony-worthy performers. But Diggs has two showy roles in a masterpiece, and he is superb in both.

Sandra

Will win: Daveed Diggs, Hamilton

A shout-out, though, to Jonathan Groff. Both Groff and Diggs are magnetic; King George just gets less air-time than Lafayette/Jefferson. 

Cameron

Will win: Christopher Jackson, Hamilton

Should win: Daveed Diggs, Hamilton

Perhaps the hardest category to predict. Diggs should take home the statue for his brilliant reimagination of Thomas Jefferson, but my gut tells me Jackson's George Washington will get the gold.

Liz

Will and should win: Daveed Diggs or Christopher Jackson, Hamilton

I suspect Diggs will take it because his parts are both so showy and he is so brilliant in them, but Jackson is quietly, steadily strong as Washington, and his "One Last Time" just slays me. So I could see the award going to him, too.

FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

Wendy

Will win: Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton.

OB/OOB person who should have been nominated:  Erin Dilly, Songbird

Sandra and Liz

Will win: Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton

She's incredibly deserving, but we both want to acknowledge Jennifer Simard, who dominated Disaster! with her comic timing and deliriously delightful gambling addiction. What an absolutely hilarious Broadway debut--please come back soon! 

OB/OOB person who should have been nominated: Mary Testa, First Daughter Suite

Cameron

Will and should win: Renée Elise Goldsberry, Hamilton.

Eliza got the guy, but Angelica will get the Tony

OB/OOB person who should have been nominated: Rachel Bay Jones, Dear Evan Hansen and First Daughter Suite

SCENIC DESIGN, PLAY

Wendy and Sandra

Will win: Jan Versweyveld, A View from the Bridge

Cameron 

Will win: Christopher Oram, Hughie

Should win: Beowulf Boritt, Therese Raquin

In both cases, the best thing about the productions.

Liz

Will win: David Zinn, The Humans

That is one successfully rendered, perfectly hideous basement apartment, I tellya.

SCENIC DESIGN, MUSICAL

We all think David Korins will win for Hamilton. Sandra and Cameron both note, however, that David Rockwell's whimsical jewel-box set for She Loves Me deserves an award, but, Cameron adds, a sweep's a sweep.

COSTUME DESIGN, PLAY

Wendy

Will win: Michael Krass, Noises Off 

This is a total guess.

Sandra

Will win: Jane Greenwood, Long Day's Journey Into Night

Cameron

Will and should win: Jane Greenwood, Long Day's Journey Into Night 

The 20th time should be the charm for Greenwood, a veteran designer who has somehow never taken home a competitive Tony (she received a lifetime achievement award in 2014).

Liz

Will and should win: Clint Ramos, Eclipsed

Ramos's costumes manage to reflect both the characters' horrible living situation and the dignity they maintain as survivors.

COSTUME DESIGN, MUSICAL

We're unanimous that it'll go to Paul Tazewell for Hamilton. Have you ever tried strenuous contemporary dance in 18th-century garb? That shit needs to breathe AND be comfortable in a way that the real clothing surely never was. Give the man a prize for preventing the whole Hamilton cast from getting an unpleasant rash! 

LIGHTING DESIGN, PLAY

Wendy

Will win: Natasha Katz, Long Day's Journey Into Night

I think the Jan Versweyveld vote will get split; with one show, I think he would win.

Sandra

Will win: Jan Versweyveld, The Crucible

This interpretation liked to play with light … a lot.

Cameron

Will and should win: Jan Versweyveld, A View From the Bridge

The menacing lighting was like an additional character in this brilliant production.

Liz

Will win: Jan Versweyveld, The Crucible

Should win: Jan Versweyveld, A View from the Bridge

See above: What Sandra and Cameron both said.

LIGHTING DESIGN, MUSICAL

Wendy and Sandra

Will win: Howell Binkley, Hamilton

Cameron and Liz

Will win: Howell Binkley, Hamilton

Should win: Ben Stanton, Spring Awakening

Cameron adds: Nearly nine months after seeing it, I'm still struck by how beautifully Deaf West's production of Spring Awakening was lit. But I don't for a second think it has a chance against Hamilton.

BEST DIRECTOR, PLAY

We are all pulling for Ivo Van Hove for A View from the Bridge, during which Liz frequently had to remind herself to breathe.

Wendy

OB/OOB people who should have been nominated: Will Davis, Men on Boats; Heather Cohn, Salvage; Jordana Williams, Advance Man, Blast Radius, and Sovereign

Cameron

OB/OOB person who should have been nominated: Sam Gold, John

Liz

OB/OOB people who should have been nominated: Rachel Chavkin, The Royale; Anne Kauffman, Marjorie Prime

BEST DIRECTOR, MUSICAL

Um, duh, it'll totally be Thomas Kail for Hamilton. Clear out a prominent spot in your office, dude!

Cameron

OB/OOB person who should have been nominated: Kirsten Sanderson, First Daughter Suite

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY

We agree that it will almost certainly go to Andy Blankenbuehler for Hamilton, though Wendy, Sandra, and Cameron think that if there's an upset, it could go to Savion Glover for Shuffle Along, which would hardly suck because it's Savion fucking Glover for Pete's sake. 

Wendy

OB/OOB person who should have been nominated: Camille A. Brown, Cabin in the Sky

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS

We all think it'll go to Alex Lacamoire for Hamilton. What, you're surprised by this at this point?