Tony Predictions 2024

It's Tony time again. Was this an exciting year on Broadway? Yes! Was it a disappointing year on Broadway? Yes! Same as it ever was.

And here we go:

(A complete list of nominees is provided at the end of this post.)

Best New Play

Sandra: Stereophonic

Silly me, when I saw this show first advertised, its name alone made me think it would never last. Yet here we are, even in a year with so many strong plays—this one stands out the most. 

Liz: Stereophonic

I think the production itself is actually stronger than the book, which is one of the more conventional things about it. But it’s an enormously entertaining and excellent show, and it’s selling very, very well. 

Wendy: Stereophonic

It's got the buzz and the timing. Would Jaja's African Hair Braiding or Prayer for the French Republic be stronger contenders if they were still running? I suspect so.

Best New Musical

Sandra: Hell’s Kitchen
The Outsiders and Water for Elephants have a few stand-out songs (“Stay Gold” and “The Road Don’t Make You Young,” for example), but nothing compares with the powerhouse skills of 15-time Grammy Award-winner Alicia Keys. Her hits, plus three new songs, along with a compelling plot based on her coming-of-age story seal the deal.  

Liz: Suffs

Thrilled as I was to see so many shows opening on Broadway this year, I was ultimately pretty whelmed by the musicals. Suffs isn’t perfect, but it grabbed my attention and respect. It’s original, moving, gloriously feminist, and it covers a fascinating history that is, shamefully, just not taught as widely as it should be.

Wendy: Illinoise

Definitely a guess in a year with no shoo-in nominee.

Best Play Revival

Sandra: An Enemy of the People 

The fact that Ibsen’s An Enemy of the People has had ten revivals on Broadway since it debuted in 1895 says something about its strength. This version is sharp and thoughtful … and particularly resonant in today’s world.

Liz: Purlie Victorious

Still a high point for me in a year-long season with tons of strong productions. 

Wendy: Purlie Victorious

This is more of a wish than a prediction, but how nice it would be to see this amazing production acknowledged.

Best Musical Revival

Sandra: Merrily We Roll Along

The show that famously lasted 16 performances after opening on Broadway in 1981 finds its heartstrings in this version.

Liz: Merrily We Roll Along

Did you hear that Sondheim was a stone-cold genius, that Maria Friedman FINALLY fixed his most problematic and flawed play, and that Sondheim died?! No question or real competition, here.

Wendy: Merrily We Roll Along

Didn't love Friedman's direction. The best thing she did was cast those three leads. They're the ones who make it work.

Best Book of a Musical 

Sandra: Suffs

History may have provided background for Shaina Taub’s work but she infused personality into the characters. The other nominations were all based on books and their transformation to musicals seems more streamlined. 

Liz: Suffs

The show was so overstuffed and plodding at The Public; I’m so happy that it was so much more fully cooked when it transferred uptown.  

Wendy: Suffs

Love that it's original. And feminist. And good.

Best Leading Actor in a Play

Sandra: Jeremy Strong, An Enemy of the People

Pretty sure Strong will add a Tony to the Emmy and Golden Globe he won for his role in Succession.

Liz: Leslie Odom, Jr., Purlie Victorious

Odom apparently fought to revive this piece, and it’s wonderful that he did: it’s funny, still timely, and the excellent production served as a love letter to the great Ossie Davis. Odom killed in the title role; the rest of the cast was awesome, too. 

Wendy: Leslie Odom, Jr., Purlie Victorious

Strong is probably going to win, but Odom was extraordinary in a more demanding role.

Best Leading Actress in a Play

Sandra: Sarah Paulson, Appropriate 

While I loved watching Lange create a forceful, hateful but sympathetic matriarch in Mother Play, Paulson’s performance (and subsequent buzz) will make her victorious.

Liz: Sarah Paulson, Appropriate

Lange may win because she’s Lange, but I was underwhelmed by her performance. Paulson, on the other hand, made a loathsome character nuanced enough to almost convince me she wasn’t so bad after all. 

Wendy: Jessica Lange, Mother Play

Lange, Paulson, Lange, Paulson, Lange, Paulson, argh! And the other actors are not chopped liver either. But I think they'll give it to Lange.

Best Leading Actor in a Musical

Sandra: Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along

I loved Brian d’Arcy James in Days of Wine and Roses, but it’s Groff’s year with his forceful performance. The Tony Awards’ last tie was in 2009, when Billy Elliot and Next to Normal won for Best Orchestrations. Maybe it’s time for another one.

Liz: Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along

Have you heard that this famously flawed musical has been ‘fixed’ and made newly brilliant by Maria Friedman? I quibble, but Groff’s subtle character work anchors this production and makes it feel more convincing than most other revivals I’ve seen.

Wendy: Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along

Groff finds the heart in Franklin and in the show. His charm, sweetness and enthusiasm at the end/beginning, as a young man, demonstrate why the other characters would stay loyal to him for so long. And even as a grown-up sell-out, he still has the faint vibe of being a worthwhile person--at least worth spending an entire musical on. The artistic success of this show is mostly his (the financial success is mostly Daniel Radcliffe's, of course).

Best Leading Actress in a Musical 

Sandra: Kelli O’Hara, Days of Wine and Roses 

O’Hara gave an extraordinary performance, with a nuanced portrayal of how an addiction entangles and strangles lives.

Liz: Kelli O’Hara, Days of Wine and Roses

This may be wishful thinking, but I’ve just never seen O’Hara better. Her depiction of a woman’s slow slide into full-blown alcoholism was harrowing but always humane, impossibly sad but also always convincing. Plus, this is by no means an easy score, she sang most of it, and she made it sound easy. She is incredibly, totally deserving.  

Wendy: Kelli O'Hara, Days of Wine and Roses

What they said! ^^^

Best Featured Actor in a Play 

Sandra: Jim Parsons, Mother Play 

This is all about me. I adore Parsons and watch The Big Bang Theory and Young Sheldon over and over with my son. Plus, Parsons successfully transforms from the persona he crafted as Sheldon Cooper into Carl, a character that charms and moves you.

Liz: Will Brill, Stereophonic

This might be wishful thinking: I am a huge Brill fan, and even as I’ve seen Stereophonic twice, I still wish I could bottle Reg’s monologue about houseboats to listen to daily. I suspect the award will go to Eli Gelb or Corey Stoll, also both deserving--but anyway, I’m happy Brill is having his moment. 

Wendy: Corey Stoll, Appropriate

Will the Stereophonic men split the Stereophonic vote? Time will tell.

Best Featured Actor in a Musical 

Sandra: Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along 
When I saw Radcliffe in How to Succeed in Business Without Really Trying in 2011, his dancing and singing hit all the marks but you could feel him working to do so. Now, he delivers fully as evidenced in his rendition of  “Franklin Shepherd, Inc.”
Liz: Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along

Radcliffe’s wiry, neurotic Charley is endearing and sympathetic, and his character work, like Groff’s, makes the book more believable. 

Wendy: Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along

I thought he was very good, not great, but I'd be suprised if he didn't win.

Best Featured Actress in a Play

Sandra: Kara Young, Purlie Victorius

Three times will be the charm for Young, who was also nominated in this category in 2022 (Clyde’s) and 2023 (Cost of Living).

Liz: Kara Young, Purlie Victorious

I imagine the two women in Stereophonic will cancel one another out, though it’s possible one will win. I’d also be over the moon to see some Tony love finally flow to the always incredible Quincy Tyler Bernstine. But I suspect it’ll go to Young. 

Wendy: Kara Young, Purlie Victorious

I think this is a particularly tricky category to predict, but I would love to see Young win.

Best Featured Actress in a Musical 

Sandra: Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along 

Mendez will complete the acting hat trick for Merrily.

Liz: Kecia Lewis, Hell’s Kitchen

I know Mendez is favored, but Merrily’s weakest link for me remains Mary, a very thinly drawn character. I love Mendez, but her Mary doesn't do anything new for me. Kecia Lewis has been around, and phenomenal, forever, so who knows? May the best nominee win.

Wendy: Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret

Not sure why I think Neuwirth will win over Mendez, but I think she will. It's a strong category, and I think the voting was probably based on likeability, past work, reputation, attendance, and other factors rather than just the performance per se.

 

Best Direction of a Play

Sandra: Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic 

A strong category this year will ultimately highlight this musical-play’s success.

Liz: Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic

While Stereophonic’s book is pretty conventional, the many production choices and the superb ensemble make it work so extraordinarily well.

Wendy: Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic

I haven't seen this yet, but buzz is buzz!

Best Direction of a Musical

Sandra: Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along

The success of the revival started with her … and the Tony will show that.

Liz: Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along

You simply do not get credited for fixing an unfixable musical by a recently deceased master without getting a Tony for your efforts. Sorry, but those are the rules.

Wendy: Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along

I saw the filmed version of her Merrily from England when it was shown in theatres, and flat-out disliked it. And I don't find what she did here astonishing or particularly impressive. But she did assemble that cast!

Best Scenic Design of a Play

Sandra: David Zinn, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding

The bright incandescence of the sets are memorable and the play deserves some Tony love.

Liz: David Zinn, Stereophonic. 

As always, I wonder if a designer who ends up competing with him/herself for an award ends up hoping they win for one show over another? Someone, quick, ask Zinn!

Wendy: David Zinn, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding

It's an opportunity to acknowledge Jaja's.

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

Sandra: Takeshi Kata, Water for Elephants

From creating a moving train to the construction of the big top, plus the moving death of a beloved horse, Kata immerses the audience into circus life.

Liz: AMP featuring Tatiana Kahvegian, The Outsiders
I confess that this show really didn’t work for me, but the set was nice.

Wendy: Takeshi Kata, Water for Elephant

I guess?

Best Costume Design of a Play

Sandra: Dede Ayite, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding

I liked this show. I want it to win in several categories, and the costumes really showcase the characters.

Liz: Enver Chakartash, Stereophonic

Such groovy ‘70s duds, man! Bring on the macrame, bell-bottoms and earth tones!

Wendy: Emilio Sosa, Purlie Victorious

If Purlie doesn't win anything else, voters might have taken this occasion to acknowledge the show.

Best Costume Design of a Musical

Sandra: Linda Cho, The Great Gatsby

So many reasons: Eva Noblezada’s rose-gold gown in the party scene; Gatsby’s white suit when he appears for the first time; the 1920s flair reinvigorated for the stage. I want her to win the Tony and then re-do my wardrobe.

Liz: Paul Tazewell, Suffs

While I agree with Sandra, I know and adore the person who made all the hats for Suffs and think the production deserves love. 

Wendy: Linda Cho, The Great Gatsby

It was the sort of costumes that tend to win awards.

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Sandra: Natasha Katz, Grey House

My true-crime-loving children dragged me to this show, and for days its creepiness permeated my life … mostly because Katz’s lighting heightened every jump scare.

Liz: Isabella Byrd, An Enemy of the People

I don’t always remember lighting, but I loved the choices this production made, and appreciated the contrasts between the first and the second parts.

Wendy: Natasha Katz, Grey House

Total guess, but I like what Sandra wrote above.

Best Lighting Design of a Musical 

Sandra: Bradley King and David Bengali, Water for Elephants

The lighting enhances the work of the puppeteers and set, elevating the staging to something magical.

Liz: Brandon Stirling Baker, Illinoise
I am really, really not a dance person. I had very low expectations. I thoroughly enjoyed Illinoise and appreciated how cozy, welcoming and warm it was. 

Wendy: Bradley King and David Bengali, Water for Elephants

Total guess, but I like what Sandra wrote above.

Best Sound Design of a Play

Sandra: Ryan Rumery, Stereophonic

It’s a play that’s also a musical. A double threat and it will earn the Tony.

Liz: Ryan Rumery, Stereophonic

A three-hour show set in a recording studio in the 1970s better have some great fucking sound design, man, or no one would dig it. 

Wendy: Ryan Rumery, Stereophonic

How could it not win?

Best Sound Design of a Musical

Sandra: Kai Harada, Merrily We Roll Along

You cannot stop this Sondheim train.

Liz: Kai Harada, Merrily We Roll Along

What Sandra says. Also, say what you want about Merrily, but the score kicks ass.

Wendy: Kai Harada, Merrily We Roll Along

Not sure that I, or most audiences members, can really compare sound design quality from show to show, but Merrily seems most likely to win.

Best Original Score

Sandra: Adam Guettel, Days of Wine and Roses

I had my doubts about this show: how can you make a compelling musical about alcoholism? Guettel created a haunting and even occasionally upbeat score I listen to all the time.

Liz: Adam Guettel, Days of Wine and Roses

I’m with Sandra. Guettel’s work is dense and challenging, and he seamlessly merges incredibly diverse styles that I’d never expect could possibly work together. This is a beautiful, difficult, meaty score, and if Stereophonic wins instead I’ll be hella annoyed. 

Wendy: Will Butler, Stereophonic

I love the score to Days of Wine and Roses and think it should win. However, accessible and popular often beat dense and challenging, however wonderful, so I'm predicting Stereophonic. I hope I'm wrong!

Best Choreography

Sandra: Justin Peck, Illinoise

It’s a well-rendered, heck-of-a-ride dance show … how could it not win?

Liz: Justin Peck, Illinoise

This not-a-dance-person was moved by the show and the dancers. It would be outrageous if it loses.

Wendy: Justin Peck, Illinoise

Duh.

Best Orchestrations

Sandra: Tom Kitt and Adam Blackstone, “Hell’s Kitchen”

It’s not an easy job adapting Keys’ music to the stage, but they did it masterfully.

Liz: Jonathan Tunick, Merrily We Roll Along

No way he doesn’t win, but I was also impressed with Timo Andres’s beautiful, creative work on Illinoise.

Wendy: Jonathan Tunick, Merrily We Roll Along

He's the man.

TONY NOMINATIONS

Best Musical
Hell’s Kitchen
Illinoise
The Outsiders
Suffs
Water for Elephants

Best Play
Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Mary Jane
Mother Play
Prayer for the French Republic
Stereophonic

Best Revival of a Play
Appropriate
An Enemy of the People
Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch

Best Revival of a Musical
Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Gutenberg! The Musical!
Merrily We Roll Along
The Who's Tommy

Best Book of a Musical
Kristoffer Diaz, Hell's Kitchen
Bekah Brunstetter, The Notebook
Adam Rapp and Justin Levine, The Outsiders
Shaina Taub, Suffs
Rick Elice, Water for Elephants

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Adam Guettel, Days of Wine and Roses
David Byrne and Fatboy Slim, Here Lies Love
Jamestown Revival (Jonathan Clay and Zach Chance) and Justin Levine, The Outsiders
Will Butler, Stereophonic
Shaina Taub, Suffs

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
William Jackson Harper, Uncle Vanya
Leslie Odom, Jr., Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
Liev Schreiber, Doubt: A Parable
Jeremy Strong, An Enemy of the People
Michael Stuhlbarg, Patriots

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Betsy Aidem, Prayer for the French Republic
Jessica Lange, Mother Play
Rachel McAdams, Mary Jane
Sarah Paulson, Appropriate
Amy Ryan, Doubt: A Parable

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Brody Grant, The Outsiders
Jonathan Groff, Merrily We Roll Along
Dorian Harewood, The Notebook
Brian d'Arcy James, Days of Wine and Roses
Eddie Redmayne, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Eden Espinosa, Lempicka
Maleah Joi Moon, Hell's Kitchen
Kelli O'Hara, Days of Wine and Roses
Maryann Plunkett, The Notebook
Gayle Rankin, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Will Brill, Stereophonic
Eli Gelb, Stereophonic
Jim Parsons, Mother Play
Tom Pecinka, Stereophonic
Corey Stoll, Appropriate

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Quincy Tyler Bernstine, Doubt: A Parable
Juliana Canfield, Stereophonic
Celia Keenan-Bolger, Mother Play
Sarah Pidgeon, Stereophonic
Kara Young, Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Roger Bart, Back To The Future: The Musical
Joshua Boone, The Outsiders
Brandon Victor Dixon, Hell's Kitchen
Sky Lakota-Lynch, The Outsiders
Daniel Radcliffe, Merrily We Roll Along
Steven Skybell, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Shoshana Bean, Hell's Kitchen
Amber Iman, Lempicka
Nikki M. James, Suffs
Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, Monty Python's Spamalot
Kecia Lewis, Hell's Kitchen
Lindsay Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along
Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Best Scenic Design of a Play
dots, Appropriate
dots, An Enemy of the People
Derek McLane, Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
David Zinn, Jaja's African Hair Braiding
David Zinn, Stereophonic

Best Scenic Design of a Musical
AMP featuring Tatiana Kahvegian, The Outsiders
Robert Brill and Peter Nigrini, Hell's Kitchen
Takeshi Kata, Water for Elephants
David Korins, Here Lies Love
Riccardo Hernández and Peter Nigrini, Lempicka
Tim Hatley and Finn Ross, Back To The Future: The Musical
Tom Scutt, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club

Best Costume Design of a Play
Dede Ayite, Appropriate
Dede Ayite, Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Enver Chakartash, Stereophonic
Emilio Sosa, Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
David Zinn, An Enemy of the People

Best Costume Design of a Musical
Dede Ayite, Hell's Kitchen
Linda Cho, The Great Gatsby
David Israel Reynoso, Water for Elephants
Tom Scutt, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Paul Tazewell, Suffs

Best Lighting Design of a Play
Isabella Byrd, An Enemy of the People
Amith Chandrashaker, Prayer for the French Republic
Jiyoun Chang, Stereophonic
Jane Cox, Appropriate
Natasha Katz, Grey House

Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Brandon Stirling Baker, Illinoise
Isabella Byrd, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Natasha Katz, Hell's Kitchen
Bradley King and David Bengali, Water for Elephants
Brian MacDevitt and Hana S. Kim, The Outsiders

Best Sound Design of a Play
Justin Ellington and Stefania Bulbarella, Jaja's African Hair Braiding
Leah Gelpe, Mary Jane
Tom Gibbons, Grey House
Bray Poor and Will Pickens, Appropriate
Ryan Rumery, Stereophonic

Best Sound Design of a Musical
M.L. Dogg and Cody Spencer, Here Lies Love
Kai Harada, Merrily We Roll Along
Nick Lidster for Autograph, Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club
Gareth Owen, Hell's Kitchen
Cody Spencer, The Outsiders

Best Direction of a Play
Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic
Anne Kauffman, Mary Jane
Kenny Leon, Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch
Lila Neugebauer, Appropriate
Whitney White, Jaja's African Hair Braiding

Best Direction of a Musical
Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along
Michael Greif, Hell's Kitchen
Leigh Silverman, Suffs
Jessica Stone, Water for Elephants
Danya Taymor, The Outsiders

Best Choreography
Annie-B Parson, Here Lies Love
Camille A. Brown, Hell's Kitchen
Rick Kuperman and Jeff Kuperman, The Outsiders
Justin Peck, Illinoise
Jesse Robb and Shana Carroll, Water for Elephants

Best Orchestrations
Timo Andres, Illinoise
Will Butler and Justin Craig, Stereophonic
Justin Levine, Matt Hinkley and Jamestown Revival (Jonathan Clay and Zach Chance), The Outsiders
Tom Kitt and Adam Blackstone, Hell's Kitchen
Jonathan Tunick, Merrily We Roll Along