Tony Award Predictions 2018

LIZ: Were I to take awards seasons seriously, I’d join with the city’s professional theater critics in wringing my hands over the purported death of Broadway at the end of this weirdly inconsistent and ultimately disappointing season. But I don’t take them seriously, and I’m not a professional theater critic. Yay for me! Also, since critics have been bitching off and on for at least a century over the imminent death of Broadway, I can leave the histrionics to them. Sure, whatever, it’s not been the most thrilling season, but then, it still beats the daylights out of reality lately, so there’s that. I’m just as eager as I always am to watch the awards, and to catch up on shows I’ve missed—whether on, Off, or Off Off Broadway—this summer. While I haven’t seen as much on Broadway as I usually have by this point in the year, I’ll venture my most educated guesses below.

SANDRA: The Tony Awards are fun to watch, and they do recognize theatrical talent ... but not every person who deserves a Tony wins one. Laura Linney, Victor Garber and Judy Kuhn are statue-less (all nominated four times!). So, here are my predictions/preferences for the prize ... submitted with me wishing that occasionally you could have two individuals win the same category.

WENDY: When people argue about who will win an award, they often leave out a tricky wild card: math. If you have five nominees, someone could win with as little as 25% of the votes—far from a majority. Is it likely? No, but it’s absolutely possible. And this is an interesting year, in that a number of categories have no shoo-in winner.

Best Play

The Children

LIZ: Again, no clue—I haven’t seen a single one. But of the list, the one I regret never catching was the one I chose

Farinelli and The King

Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two

SANDRA: Saw none of the nominations but Harry Potter could win – especially since it will probably sweep design awards. 

WENDY: People seem to like the production more than the play, but since there’s no separate playwright’s award (which I think there should be), I think this will indeed go to Harry Potter,

Junk

Latin History for Morons

Best Musical

The Band's Visit

LIZ: It really could go to SpongeBob, frankly—but considering the wailing in the press right now about how corporations have taken over and destroyed Broadway (where the hell have these journalists been since the early 1990s?!), I suspect the vote will reflect the concern.

SANDRA: While the other musicals offer often clever and fun lyrics, this one had real heart. 

WENDY: I’m not 100% confident this will win, but I loved it.

Frozen

Mean Girls

SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical

Best Revival of a Play

Angels in America

LIZ: This could go to any one of them except Iceman, I suspect. 

SANDRA: Angels in America. It still resonates. 

WENDY: This feels like the clear winner to me.

Edward Albee's Three Tall Women

Eugene O'Neill's The Iceman Cometh

Lobby Hero

Travesties

Best Revival of a Musical

My Fair Lady

LIZ

Once On This Island

WENDY: Strange year for musical revivals, with controversies and complaints, yet also with much love and enthusiasm. I’m betting that My Fair Lady and Carousel cancel each other out, and Once on This Island squeaks through.

Rodgers & Hammerstein's Carousel

SANDRA: Beautifully cast, all leads perform brilliantly and the choreography is divine.

Best Book of a Musical

The Band's Visit: Itamar Moses

Frozen: Jennifer Lee

Mean Girls: Tina Fey

LIZ: Come on, now, Fey’s a comic mastermind. Also, while all four of these plays are adaptations from something else, Lee and Fey wrote the damn movies and adapted them as musicals, because women are badass like that. Still, I see Mean Girls winning over Frozen if only because the former translates to the stage somewhat better than the latter. 

SANDRA: A tough call. I want it to be Itamar Moses (A Band’s Visit) but I think Tina Fey (Mean Girls) put together a witty extension of the movie that offers a darker take and more character context. 

WENDY

SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical: Kyle Jarrow

Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre

Angels in America

The Band's Visit

LIZ: What’s this nonsense about Angels getting a nod here? Seriously, it’s a great revival, but I don’t remember a damn thing about the music. Not a snowflake’s chance in Hell. Give the prize to Yazbeck, please—the show’s sweet, the tunes are catchy, the score isn’t assembled by committee, what’s not to love? 

SANDRA: Music and lyrics by David Yazbek (A Band’s Visit) will best the others’ fun, campy sounds. 

WENDY: Yazbek did a gorgeous job here.

Frozen

Mean Girls

SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play

Andrew Garfield, Angels in America

LIZ: It’s tough to reinvent Prior Walter, even 25 years after Stephen Spinella more or less broke the mold, but Garfield did it, and is richly deserving. 

SANDRA 

WENDY

Tom Hollander, Travesties

Jamie Parker, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two

Mark Rylance, Farinelli and The King

Denzel Washington, Eugene O'Neill's The Iceman Cometh

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play

Glenda Jackson, Edward Albee's Three Tall Women

LIZ: I eagerly await Condola Rashad’s richly deserved awards, but this one belongs to Glenda Jackson. Holy moly, her rip-roaring performance has been harboring all the energy and fire the rest of the season lacks. 

SANDRA: Amy Schumer doesn’t have a shot in hell, but I’m glad she was nominated. Her turn in Meteor Shower was hilarious, spontaneous and unexpected. 

WENDY: I think this is the closest thing to a lock of all the acting awards.

Condola Rashad, Saint Joan

Lauren Ridloff, Children of a Lesser God

Amy Schumer, Meteor Shower

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical

Harry Hadden-Paton, My Fair Lady

Joshua Henry, Rodgers & Hammerstein's Carousel

SANDRA: Loved Tony Shalhoub (A Band’s Visit), but I think Joshua Henry in Carousel will get it. Too bad there can’t be a tie; they both deserve it.

Tony Shalhoub, The Band's Visit

WENDY: In truth, I don’t have a clue on this one.

Ethan Slater, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical

LIZ: Yeah, you heard me right. The dude works incredibly hard and breathes life, energy and incredibly sweetness into….a sponge.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical

Lauren Ambrose, My Fair Lady

Hailey Kilgore, Once On This Island

LaChanze, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical

Katrina Lenk, The Band's Visit

LIZ: The upset here could be Ambrose, but Lenk is wonderful and I don’t think the show would be quite the same without her. 

SANDRA 

WENDY: I didn’t think she was superduper or anything, but I think a lot of other people did.

Taylor Louderman, Mean Girls

Jessie Mueller, Rodgers & Hammerstein's Carousel

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play

Anthony Boyle, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two

Michael Cera, Lobby Hero

Brian Tyree Henry, Lobby Hero

Nathan Lane, Angels in America

LIZ: I’ve heard great things about Morse, and I LOVE Brian Tyree Henry. But Lane is not someone I’ve been consistently impressed with over the years, and I was absolutely gobsmacked by the intensity of his performance as Roy Cohn. 

SANDRA 

WENDY

David Morse, Eugene O'Neill's The Iceman Cometh

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play

Susan Brown, Angels in America

Noma Dumezweni, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two

Deborah Findlay, The Children

Denise Gough, Angels in America

LIZ: I actually didn’t love Gough in this, but she seems to be favored, and I either haven’t seen or was not hugely impressed by anyone else. This could go to Dumezweni, which would be lovely, too.

Laurie Metcalf, Edward Albee's Three Tall Women

SANDRA 

WENDY

Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical

Norbert Leo Butz, My Fair Lady

SANDRA: Norbert Leo Butz (My Fair Lady) or Ari’el Stachel (A Band’s Visit). I’d like to see Stachel get it, but NLB is a bigger name.

Alexander Gemignani, Rodgers & Hammerstein's Carousel

Grey Henson, Mean Girls

Gavin Lee, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical

LIZ: A game and winning showman—with double the legs and tap shoes! 

WENDY

Ari'el Stachel, The Band's Visit

Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical

Ariana DeBose, Summer: The Donna Summer Musical

Renée Fleming, Rodgers & Hammerstein's Carousel

LIZ: Actually, I have no idea, and since I love Mendez in everything, I hope it goes to her. Still, I think Fleming is favored and I have big money riding on this (actually I don’t). 

SANDRA: Seeing her perform “You’ll Never Walk Alone” was worth the ticket price even if you spent the remainder of the show in the bathroom.

Lindsay Mendez, Rodgers & Hammerstein's Carousel

Ashley Park, Mean Girls

Diana Rigg, My Fair Lady

WENDY: This is arguably a dumb guess, what with the size of her role, but people love her. A lot.

Best Scenic Design of a Play

Miriam Buether, Edward Albee's Three Tall Women

Jonathan Fensom, Farinelli and The King

Christine Jones, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two

LIZ: All the tech awards are going to this monster, no question. 

SANDRA: Magic will beat everything else. 

WENDY

Santo Loquasto, Eugene O'Neill's The Iceman Cometh

Ian MacNeil and Edward Pierce, Angels in America

Best Scenic Design of a Musical

Dane Laffrey, Once On This Island

Scott Pask, The Band's Visit

Scott Pask, Finn Ross & Adam Young, Mean Girls

SANDRA: Scott Pask, Finn Ross and Adam Young (Mean Girls). Those video sets were remarkably lifelike and I loved the desk-turning choreography.

Michael Yeargan, My Fair Lady

David Zinn, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical

LIZ: The set had me at the enormous clusters of pool floaties. 

WENDY

Best Costume Design of a Play

Jonathan Fensom, Farinelli and The King

Nicky Gillibrand, Angels in America

Katrina Lindsay, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two

LIZ 

SANDRA 

WENDY

Ann Roth, Edward Albee's Three Tall Women

Ann Roth, Eugene O'Neill's The Iceman Cometh

Best Costume Design of a Musical

Gregg Barnes, Mean Girls

Clint Ramos, Once On This Island

Ann Roth, Rodgers & Hammerstein's Carousel

David Zinn, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical

LIZ: Those pink and green sardines!! 

WENDY

Catherine Zuber, My Fair Lady

SANDRA

Best Lighting Design of a Play

Neil Austin, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two

LIZ 

SANDRA 

WENDY

Paule Constable, Angels in America

Jules Fisher + Peggy Eisenhauer, Eugene O'Neill's The Iceman Cometh

Paul Russell, Farinelli and The King

Ben Stanton, Junk

Best Lighting Design of a Musical

Kevin Adams, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical

WENDY

Jules Fisher + Peggy Eisenhauer, Once On This Island

LIZ: This might be way off, but hell, it’s deserving: the lighting of that show stayed with me, which is not at all a weird thing to say about lighting once you tune in to how important it is.

Donald Holder, My Fair Lady

Brian MacDevitt, Rodgers & Hammerstein's Carousel

SANDRA

Tyler Micoleau, The Band's Visit

Best Sound Design of a Play

Adam Cork, Travesties

Ian Dickinson for Autograph, Angels in America

Gareth Fry, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two

LIZ 

SANDRA 

WENDY

Tom Gibbons, 1984

Dan Moses Schreier, Eugene O'Neill's The Iceman Cometh

Best Sound Design of a Musical

Kai Harada, The Band's Visit

SANDRA

WENDY: Sat in the 2^nd-to-last row and could hear perfectly. That’s good sound design to me!

Peter Hylenski, Once On This Island

Scott Lehrer, Rodgers & Hammerstein's Carousel

Brian Ronan, Mean Girls

Walter Trarbach and Mike Dobson, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical

LIZ: For Squidward’s squeaky footsteps alone. Also, a continued yay for the reinstatement of this important award!

Best Direction of a Play

Marianne Elliott, Angels in America

Joe Mantello, Edward Albee's Three Tall Women

SANDRA

Patrick Marber, Travesties

John Tiffany, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two

LIZ: A shoutout, though, to Joe Mantello for his work on Three Tall Women.

WENDY

George C. Wolfe, Eugene O'Neill's The Iceman Cometh

Best Direction of a Musical

Michael Arden, Once On This Island

David Cromer, The Band's Visit

SANDRA

Tina Landau, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical

LIZ: Landau’s direction made what could have been trashy garbage into a genuinely imaginative, playful, and engaging production.

WENDY

Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls

Bartlett Sher, My Fair Lady

Best Choreography

Christopher Gattelli, My Fair Lady

Christopher Gattelli, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical

Steven Hoggett, Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two

Casey Nicholaw, Mean Girls

Justin Peck, Rodgers & Hammerstein's Carousel

LIZ: I loved, especially, the emulation of ocean waves.

WENDY

SANDRA

Best Orchestrations

John Clancy, Mean Girls

Tom Kitt, SpongeBob SquarePants: The Musical

Annmarie Milazzo & Michael Starobin, Once On This Island

Jamshied Sharifi, The Band's Visit

LIZ: Truly, no clue; this was a total guess. May the best orchestrator win.

SANDRA

Jonathan Tunick, Rodgers & Hammerstein's Carousel

WENDY: I don’t really have a clue, either, but Tunick is regularly brilliant, so he seems a good guess.