Although we have not previously shown great acuity in Tony prediction, here we are again. Hope springs eternal!
While the musical season lacked a Caroline or Change or Light in the Piazza or Hamilton, it was strong in creativity and entertainment. And only two nominees are based on existing IP. Two are based on actual incidents. And while Maybe Happy Ending was not created specifically for Broadway, it is nevertheless an original piece.
The best play category is just fabulous: five smart, meaningful, more or less funny, more or less serious, excellent pieces of work.
Of course, these riches make Tony predicting even more difficult than usual. Is it an exaggeration to say that every nominee deserves to win? We don’t think so, but we have considered the nominees, followed the politics, thrown the I Ching, and examined the entrails of a sacrificed pile of Playbills, and here are our predictions.
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Note: Our choices are underlined in our discussions.
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Best New Musical
Liz: Dead Outlaw is such a wonderfully bizarre piece; Death Becomes Her lets three famously scenery-chewing performers chew to their hearts’ content; Buena Vista Social Club is lively and is packing ‘em in; Operation Mincemeat is low-key and droll, imaginative and surprisingly moving. I’ve got no real skin in this game, but my gut tells me Maybe Happy Ending will win.
Sandra: I see this as a battle between the offbeat, quirky Dead Outlaw and the offbeat, quirky Maybe Happy Ending. Both showcase clever storytelling about the value of human (or robot) life and the legacy of that living. I think in the end the emotional resonance of Maybe Happy Ending will edge Dead Outlaw out.
Wendy: I’m going with Maybe Happy Ending. While all of these shows have their adherents, Maybe Happy Ending seems to have touched and delighted audiences in a particularly warm way.
Best New Musical
“Buena Vista Social Club”
“Dead Outlaw”
“Death Becomes Her”
“Maybe Happy Ending”
“Operation Mincemeat”
Liz: Dead Outlaw is such a wonderfully bizarre piece; Death Becomes Her lets three famously scenery-chewing performers chew to their hearts’ content; Buena Vista Social Club is lively and is packing ‘em in; Operation Mincemeat is low-key and droll, imaginative and surprisingly moving. I’ve got no real skin in this game, but my gut tells me Maybe Happy Ending will win.
Sandra: I see this as a battle between the offbeat, quirky Dead Outlaw and the offbeat, quirky Maybe Happy Ending. Both showcase clever storytelling about the value of human (or robot) life and the legacy of that living. I think in the end the emotional resonance of Maybe Happy Ending will edge Dead Outlaw out.
Wendy: I’m going with Maybe Happy Ending. While all of these shows have their adherents, Maybe Happy Ending seems to have touched and delighted audiences in a particularly warm way.
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Best New Play
“English”“The Hills of California”“John Proctor Is the Villain”“Oh, Mary!”“Purpose”
Liz: Purpose just beat out Oh, Mary! for the Pulitzer, so it’s possible that will happen with the Tony, too. That said, no play this season has resonated quite the way Oh, Mary! has: there’s something to be said about the strangely timely way this quirky, campy show gleefully mangles American history on its own terms, and I’m guessing it’ll win.
Sandra: My gut says Purpose since it won the Pulitzer, but the irreverent Oh, Mary! offers a campy cheek not seen Off-Broadway (where it opened in February 2024) or on Broadway in a long, long time (I’d argue 2011’s The Book of Mormon). Its charm and craftmanship might provide some competition.
Wendy: I believe that the Tony will go to one of the shows still running: John Proctor is the Villain, Oh, Mary!, or Purpose. I think John Proctor is the Villain will take it.
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Best Musical Revival
“Floyd Collins”“Gypsy“Pirates! The Penzance Musical”“Sunset Boulevard”
Liz: I can see Sunset taking this, especially given its stagey departures from the original (including a celebrated segment that doesn’t take place on the stage itself). Gypsy could win, too, very easily. Floyd Collins is the quieter and heavier underdog here, but still, I’d be thrilled if it won. I’ll guess Gypsy because it’s Gypsy.
Sandra: Although Sunset Boulevard never really impressed me, somehow, I’ve seen it four times (Glenn Close in Los Angeles; Glenn Close in New York in 1994, Elaine Paige in 1996, and Nicole Scherzinger in 2024 — all on Broadway). But this recent production stunned me with its staging. Tom Francis’ second act walk backstage, down 44th Street through the theater is simply exhilarating, rich, inventive — and one of the most exciting Broadway moments I’ve experienced this season. So, Sunset Boulevard for the win.
Wendy: Okay, here’s a prediction I’d bet on: Pirates! won’t win. Predicting who will win is a tad more challenging. I’m going to say Sunset Boulevard because it really excited the part of the audience that didn’t hate it.
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Best Play Revival
“Eureka Day”“Our Town”“Romeo + Juliet”“Yellow Face”
Liz: I suspect Eureka Day won’t take this: as delightful and timely and hilarious as it was, it was also pretty light (and undersold). The turbo-charged Our Town was so poorly conceived that if it wins, I’ll be very grumpy. The award could certainly go to Romeo + Juliet, which ran well and had solid word of mouth, but if I had my druthers, Yellow Face would win.
Sandra: Romeo + Juliet successfully made Shakespeare accessible to the Tik Tok crowd. My 17-year-old daughter and 15-year-old son BEGGED me to take them. The music from Jack Antonoff and an immersive set design, where actors performed from the aisles, stage rafters, and seating gave this classic a powerful accessibility — and Kit Connor’s balcony pull-up scene created a viral moment … and engaging theater.
Wendy: Our Town is the rare nominee this year that I think didn’t deserve its nomination. It just kinda wasn’t Our Town. A friend said that she always sobbed by the end of Our Town, and this time she was only teary-eyed. I’m predicting Eureka Day at least as much because I loved it as I believe it will win.
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Best Leading Actress in a Play
Laura Donnelly, “The Hills of California”
Mia Farrow, “The Roommate”
LaTanya Richardson Jackson, “Purpose”
Sadie Sink, “John Proctor Is the Villain”
Sarah Snook, “The Picture of Dorian Gray”
Liz: I appreciate that Farrow, at 80, got her first Tony nod, and Laura Donnelly’s performance as both mother and daughter was superb. But one-person shows involving lots of costume changes and shape shifting and sweat are shoo-ins, so early congratulations to Sarah Snook.
Sandra: Like Liz and Wendy, I pay homage to Farrow and her acting legacy. How wonderful it would be to see her on stage Tony night. But I take comfort in the fact that all of these performances are as solid as they come, and when Sarah Snook takes the award, I won’t cry.
Wendy: I suspect that LIz might be right that Snook will win due to sheer showy effort, and she also has a pre-existing fan base from Succession. Laura Donnelly was extraordinary, Sadie Sink was dynamic and moving, and Mia Farrow is Mia Farrow. But LaTanya Richardson Jackson provided a vibrant center for Purpose and brilliantly showed the price of committing your life to living a lie.
Best Leading Actress in a Play
Laura Donnelly, “The Hills of California”
Mia Farrow, “The Roommate”
LaTanya Richardson Jackson, “Purpose”
Sadie Sink, “John Proctor Is the Villain”
Sarah Snook, “The Picture of Dorian Gray”
Liz: I appreciate that Farrow, at 80, got her first Tony nod, and Laura Donnelly’s performance as both mother and daughter was superb. But one-person shows involving lots of costume changes and shape shifting and sweat are shoo-ins, so early congratulations to Sarah Snook.
Sandra: Like Liz and Wendy, I pay homage to Farrow and her acting legacy. How wonderful it would be to see her on stage Tony night. But I take comfort in the fact that all of these performances are as solid as they come, and when Sarah Snook takes the award, I won’t cry.
Wendy: I suspect that LIz might be right that Snook will win due to sheer showy effort, and she also has a pre-existing fan base from Succession. Laura Donnelly was extraordinary, Sadie Sink was dynamic and moving, and Mia Farrow is Mia Farrow. But LaTanya Richardson Jackson provided a vibrant center for Purpose and brilliantly showed the price of committing your life to living a lie.
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Best Leading Actor in a Play
Best Leading Actor in a Play
George Clooney, “Good Night, and Good Luck”Cole Escola, “Oh, Mary!”Jon Michael Hill, “Purpose”Daniel Dae Kim, “Yellow Face”Harry Lennix, “Purpose”Louis McCartney, “Stranger Things: The First Shadow”
Liz: This is a tossup between Clooney and Escola. Clooney’s first time on Broadway is a big deal making big money, but I’m gonna go with Escola.
Sandra: I so want Cole Escola to win this. Their performance shows boldness and imagination as they create a distinctive Mary Todd Lincoln that’s both hilarious and memorable.
Wendy: I don’t think Cole Escola will win Best Play and Best Actor. This is the one I’m predicting them to win.
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Best Leading Actress in a Musical
Best Leading Actress in a Musical
Jasmine Amy Rogers, “Boop!”Megan Hilty, “Death Becomes Her”Audra McDonald, “Gypsy”Nicole Scherzinger, “Sunset Boulevard”Jennifer Simard, “Death Becomes Her”
Liz: Hilty is phenomenal; Simard is a longtime favorite who never fails to send me into paroxysms of laughter. Rogers is an exciting new talent with a big future ahead of her. McDonald is adored. But unless Scherzinger so alienated voters over her evasive political posts, I suspect she’ll win.
Sandra: Does Audra really need a seventh tony? Yes, she’s a phenomenal talent who puts her own spin on this classic role but let’s share the wealth already. I think Nicole Scherzinger is the top pick here. She already won the Olivier Award, and her presence onstage is both vulnerable and commanding. And she’s got the pipes.
Wendy: I think the big question here is, do the Tony voters think that Audra has enough Tonys? And, as Liz pointed out, there’s a chance Scherzinger has alienated enough people to cost her this award. I’m going to predict Audra for this somewhat bizarre reason: Some years ago, at a Tonys party, I ended up tying for most correct predictions. I would have won solo had I predicted McDonald in Supporting Actress. So I’ve learned not to mess with Audra.
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Best Leading Actor in a Musical
Best Leading Actor in a Musical
Darren Criss, “Maybe Happy Ending”Andrew Durand, “Dead Outlaw”Tom Francis, “Sunset Boulevard”Jonathan Groff, “Just in Time”Jeremy Jordan, “Floyd Collins”James Monroe Iglehart, “A Wonderful World: The Louis Armstrong Musical”
Liz: Jordan does what he can from his lounge chair, but it’s not his time. Iglehart won’t win, nor will Groff (who took this award last year). Francis was excellent, but not so distinctive in the role as Scherzinger is in hers. Durand is weird and wonderful in Outlaw. But I think Criss will win.
Sandra: I’ll be honest here. I’m a Gleek. I watched all six seasons through the good, the bad and the ugly (I’m looking at you Season 5). I vote for Blaine Anderson, um, I mean, Darren Criss.
Wendy: Criss or Groff, Groff or Criss? I’m going with Criss.
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Best Direction of a Musical
Best Direction of a Musical
Saheem Ali, “Buena Vista Social Club”Michael Arden, “Maybe Happy Ending”David Cromer, “Dead Outlaw”Christopher Gattelli, “Death Becomes Her”Jamie Lloyd, “Sunset Boulevard”
Liz: OMG please don’t make me guess this one. I’ll go with a pathetic attempt at wordplay, even if it evokes illicit massage parlors: Perhaps this will be Michael Arden’s happy ending?
Sandra: Jamie Lloyd, for sure. He’s the director/producer du jour this season — and, honestly, I think he’s earned the title. His stripped-down, stunning version of Sunset Boulevard made my own viewing pleasure of a show I never liked four-times the charm.
Wendy: I would predict Jamie Lloyd for Sunset Boulevard because tearing apart–uh, reimagining–existing pieces is often popular. But a lot of people hated what he did. So I’m going with Michael Arden for Maybe Happy Ending.
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Best Direction of a Play
Knud Adams, “English”Sam Mendes, “The Hills of California”Sam Pinkleton, “Oh, Mary!”Danya Taymor, “John Proctor Is the Villain”Kip Williams, “The Picture of Dorian Gray”
Liz: Hills was beautifully directed, but I suspect it’ll go to Pinkleton or Williams — with a slight edge for Williams.
Sandra: I echo my colleagues. I think Sam Pinkleton for Oh, Mary!
Wendy: Sam Pinkleton seems likely, for Oh, Mary!
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Featured Actress in a Play
Tala Ashe, “English”Jessica Hecht, “Eureka Day”Marjan Neshat, “English”Fina Strazza, “John Proctor Is the Villain”Kara Young, “Purpose”
Liz: I missed a number of these, so I’m throwing darts, here. Hecht and Young are always phenomenal. I can’t speak to Ashe or Strazza. I’ve seen Neshat in other shows, am always impressed with her, so I will root for her to get the honor, even as everyone’s deserving.
Sandra: I first noticed Hecht when she played Susan in “Friends,” and since then I’ve seen her several times on Broadway in The Last Night of Ballyhoo (1997), A View from the Bridge (2010) and Fiddler on the Roof (2015) — all showed her ability to infuse her characters with compassion, depth and nuance. After 12 shows on Broadway, it’s Tony time for her.
Wendy: Jessica Hecht doesn’t have a Tony. I think she should. Perhaps the Tony voters will agree.
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Best Featured Actor in a Play
Best Featured Actor in a Play
Glenn Davis, “Purpose”Gabriel Ebert, “John Proctor Is the Villain”Francis Jue, “Yellow Face”Bob Odenkirk, “Glengarry Glen Ross”Conrad Ricamora, “Oh, Mary!”
Liz: Enormously worthy contenders to a one. But Conrad Ricamora was perfect as totally-ahistorical-Abe-Lincoln, and I’d be thrilled to see him win.
Sandra: I think the revival of Yellow Face deserves an award and this is the category, where a win is most likely. I’m with Wendy on this one (Francis Jue).
Wendy: I feel like Francis Jue’s name has already been engraved on this Tony, for Yellow Face and his entire body of work.
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Best Featured Actress in a Musical
Natalie Venetia Belcon, “Buena Vista Social Club”Julia Knitel, “Dead Outlaw”Gracie Lawrence, “Just in Time”Justina Machado, “Real Women Have Curves”Joy Woods, “Gypsy”
Liz: Not a freaking clue. Time to throw a dart again: Joy Woods in Gypsy.
Sandra: I’m with Wendy here. I’d like to see this show get attention and Machado adds some spice and heart to her matriarch character.
Wendy: I’m predicting Justina Machado, Real Women Have Curves, partially to give the show something.
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Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Best Featured Actor in a Musical
Brooks Ashmanskas, “Smash”Jeb Brown, “Dead Outlaw”Danny Burstein, “Gypsy”Jak Malone, “Operation Mincemeat”Taylor Trensch, “Floyd Collins”
Liz: I don’t see Burstein or Trensch winning this. Brooks Ashmanskas is funny and holds Smash together. But I think this one will go to Jak Malone for his generous, funny, and surprisingly moving work in Mincemeat.
Sandra: Again, I’m voting with my heart and no logic whatsoever. I would watch Danny Burstein read the phone book as they say and have enjoyed his presence in so many productions over the years — he’s done 19 Broadway shows (19!) — and I want to give the award to him.
Wendy: I’m predicting Danny Burstein because he is clearly very loved by the Broadway community.
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Best Book of a Musical
Best Book of a Musical
“Buena Vista Social Club”“Dead Outlaw”“Death Becomes Her”“Maybe Happy Ending”“Operation Mincemeat”
Liz: These are all good-to-superb books, and a few — like Death Becomes Her — even improve on their filmic predecessors. But Maybe Happy Ending and Dead Outlaw are the two completely original ones — and of those two, Outlaw stays with me as especially loopy, manic and brilliantly executed.
Sandra: This is a particularly strong category as Liz mentions. I think Outlaw will win for its originality, but I’d love to see a world where Wendy’s prediction comes true.
Wendy: I think this is where the Tony voters will acknowledge Operation Mincemeat.
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Best Scenic Design of a Play
Marsha Ginsberg, “English”Rob Howell, “The Hills of California”Marg Horwell and David Bergman, “The Picture of Dorian Gray”Miriam Buether and 59, “Stranger Things: The First Shadow”Scott Pask, “Good Night, and Good Luck”
Liz: I loved the Hills set, with its stairways climbing up into the heights, but I suspect the award will go to something newer and gimmickier, like Stranger Things. That’s a shot in the dark, though — haven’t seen enough of these to offer any educated guesses.
Sandra: Sometimes gimmicky works, especially when it’s slightly magical. With elaborate sets and high-impact stagecraft, Stranger Things elevates its fan-friendly material. If Harry Potter and the Cursed Child, Parts One and Two can win six Tony Awards (including Best Scenic Design) with a play that lacks the emotional impact of J.K. Rowling’s original series, perhaps Stranger Things can prevail, too.
Wendy: I agree with Liz and Sandra that a newer and gimmickier design is likely to win, but I’m predicting The HIlls of California for its elegant old and less-gimmicky design.
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Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Best Scenic Design of a Musical
Rachel Hauck, “Swept Away”Dane Laffrey and George Reeve, “Maybe Happy Ending”Arnulfo Maldonado, “Buena Vista Social Club”Derek McLane, “Death Becomes Her”Derek McLane, “Just in Time”
Liz: I appreciated the spare, evocative design for Swept Away but was most impressed with the clean lines, brightness and tidy, graceful efficiency of the set for Maybe Happy Ending.
Sandra: I’m siding with the Show Showdown gang with this one: Maybe Happy Ending.
Wendy: Maybe Happy Ending, as in complete guess.
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Best Lighting Design of a Play
Best Lighting Design of a Play
Natasha Chivers, “The Hills of California”Jon Clark, “Stranger Things: The First Shadow”Heather Gilbert and David Bengali, “Good Night, and Good Luck”Natasha Katz and Hannah Wasileski, “John Proctor is the Villain”Nick Schlieper, “The Picture of Dorian Gray”
Liz: Just gonna go with Clark for the tv show onstage or Schlieper for Dorian Gray. Maybe the latter, because super newsy one-woman shows don’t lighting design themselves.
Sandra: I think Stranger (Jon Clark) could take this for the reasons above (Harry Potter BTW also won for lighting design).
Wendy: Picture of Dorian Gray (Nick Schlieper), because the lighting is so lit.
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Best Costume Design of a Play
Best Costume Design of a Play
Brenda Abbandandolo, “Good Night, and Good Luck”Marg Horwell, “The Picture of Dorian Gray”Rob Howell, “The Hills of California”Holly Pierson, “Oh, Mary!”Brigitte Reiffenstuel, “Stranger Things: The First Shadow”
Liz: Oh, who knows? More darts: Pierson for Oh, Mary!
Sandra: When a team of dressers needs to appear onstage, you know that costumes have become an essential part of the theatrical experience. While the video technology and Sarah Snook’s acting skill form the 26 characters in Oscar Wilde’s only novel, it is the quick change of the period clothing that facilitate the actress’s transformation. (Marg Horwell)
Wendy: Oh, Mary! for sure.
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Best Choreography
Joshua Bergasse, “Smash”Camille A. Brown, “Gypsy”Christopher Gattelli, “Death Becomes Her”Jerry Mitchell, “Boop!”Patricia Delgado and Justin Peck, “Buena Vista Social Club”
Liz: Ummmm….Smash? I’m out of my league, here.
Sandra: The dance in Buena Vista Social Club infuses the audience with the spirit of this show. It is performed not as an aside but as a key element to the musical’s storytelling, which is why it will win the Tony.
Wendy: I’m envisioning a Tonys where the awards are spread around, and I’m predicting Buena Vista Social Club here.
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Best Orchestrations
Best Orchestrations
Andrew Resnick and Michael Thurber, “Just in Time”Will Aronson, “Maybe Happy Ending”Bruce Coughlin, “Floyd Collins”Marco Paguia, “Buena Vista Social Club”David Cullen and Andrew Lloyd Webber, “Sunset Boulevard”
Liz: Floyd Collins sounded so rich and lovely in this rendition, and I love that score so much.
Sandra: Floyd Collins deserves some recognition and like Liz I think this is where the Tony Awards will show it love.
Wendy: And here’s where I think they’ll reward Just In Time.
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Best Sound Design of a Play
Paul Arditti, “Stranger Things: The First Shadow”Palmer Hefferan, “John Proctor Is the Villain”Daniel Kluger, “Good Night, and Good Luck”Nick Powell, “The Hills of California”Clemence Williams, “The Picture of Dorian Gray”
Liz: When in doubt, as I am, go for the tech-heavy spectacle. Stranger Things.
Sandra: I say Stranger Things, too.
Wendy: This always seems to me to be a difficult category, because people have different sonic experiences from different seats. And is it about clarity, mood, or some other factor? Totally randomly, I’m going for Good Night, and Good Luck.
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Best Original Score
Best Original Score
“Dead Outlaw,” David Yazbek and Erik Della Penna“Death Becomes Her,” Julia Mattison and Noel Carey“Maybe Happy Ending,” Will Aronson and Hue Park“Operation Mincemeat,” David Cumming, Felix Hagan, Natasha Hodgson and Zoë Roberts“Real Women Have Curves,” Joy Huerta and Benjamin Velez
Liz: Dead Outlaw is currently my personal favorite, even as it’s ultimately very short, just slightly one-note (even as that one note ROCKS), and not necessarily Yazbek’s best work. While I’d love to see it win just because I dig it, I suspect Maybe Happy Ending will instead.
Sandra: I'm siding with Wendy on this one. (Maybe Happy Ending)
Wendy: I think this will go to Maybe Happy Ending.
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Best Costume Design of a Musical
Best Costume Design of a Musical
Dede Ayite, “Buena Vista Social Club”Gregg Barnes, “Boop!”Clint Ramos, “Maybe Happy Ending”Paul Tazewell, “Death Becomes Her”Catherine Zuber, “Just in Time”
Liz: Can I vote for Great Gatsby again? No? Fine: Tazewell for Death Becomes Her.
Sandra: The costumes in Death Becomes Her give insight into the character’s POV, and those sparkle dresses in the end are to die for — if Madeline and Helen lost their immortality — and show the totality of their decisions. So, Show Showdown stands united on this one.
Wendy: Paul Tazewell for Death Becomes Her.
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Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Jack Knowles, “Sunset Boulevard”Tyler Micoleau, “Buena Vista Social Club”Scott Zielinski and Ruey Horng Sun, “Floyd Collins”Ben Stanton, “Maybe Happy Ending”Justin Townsend, “Death Becomes Her”
Liz: Knowles for sure: the lighting makes that production.
Sandra: Hey, look at us: we all agree again. We’re on a roll. (Sunset Boulevard)
Wendy: Jack Knowles for Sunset Boulevard.
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Best Sound Design of a Musical
Best Sound Design of a Musical
Jonathan Deans, “Buena Vista Social Club”Adam Fisher, “Sunset Boulevard”Peter Hylenski, “Just in Time”Peter Hylenski, “Maybe Happy Ending”Dan Moses Schreier, “Floyd Collins”
Liz: Just because I love when this happens, I’m voting for Hylenski. Which one? Do I have to guess? Happy Ending if so, but as always, I’ll wonder if, should he win for one and not the other, he’ll still beat himself up for losing?
Sandra: Buena Vista Social Club for the win because the show is literally about the music. The sound embraces a pure, exuberant joy that stays with the audience long after the last notes.
Wendy: Hey, Floyd Collins should get something, right?
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