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Friday, May 22, 2026

Tony Predictions 2026

Broadway keeps chugging along, and so do we. Yes, awards are silly. Yes, the choice of Pink as the host is bizarre. But predicting winners is fun, and a yearly review of Broadway is always worthwhile.  

As for the famous cliché that it's an honor just to be nominated—that's absolutely true. It's an honor to write, direct, design, and act on Broadway. Hell, it can be an honor just to be in the audience!

Don't forget Off-Broadway and Off-Off-Broadway, which frequently offer brilliance and often have  reasonable prices. They can be every bit as magical as Broadway,

But, this is the season of the Tonys, so, hail Broadway! Long may you thrive.




Best Play

The Balusters, David Lindsay-Abaire
Giant, Mark Rosenblatt
Liberation, Bess Wohl
Little Bear Ridge Road, Samuel D. Hunter

Wendy: This is a hearteningly strong category. I predict Liberation will win, partially because I really hope it does.

Liz: Liberation won the Pulitzer and I’m assuming the members of the Tony committee took notice. Then again, women are clearly second-class citizens in this country, and all the other plays are by dudes, so it’s possible that the Tony won’t go to the best of the bunch.

Sandra: I want to say LiberationI loved the interviews it incorporated and how Wohl managed to create such vivid and disparate characters. It did win the Pulitzer, but as Liz said, these days it’s a man’s world. Mark Roseblatt’s play won the Olivier and I think Giant will also nab the Tony.

 


Best Musical
The Lost Boys
Schmigadoon!
Titaníque
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Wendy: There used to be all sorts of “logic” in predicting best musical. It would be big, fun, and able to tour. I’m not sure how useful that logic ever was, but it’s certainly useless this century, going back to Avenue Q beating Wicked, when Caroline, or Change was the best of the three! So, Schmigadoon! or Two Strangers? Could the Lost Boys take it? The prediction I have the most faith in is that Titanique won’t win. Okay, here goes: Schmigadoon!

Liz: Schmigadoon! Titaníque is a hoot, but it’s too loose and offbeat to win. Schmigadoon was hilarious when I saw it on TV. The Lost Boys was fun when I saw it at the Monroeville Cineplex Odeon in 1987. I haven’t seen the strangers carrying cake, but don't think it will take the award. May the best recycled property in a bum season win.

Sandra: I’m with Liz on this one—Schmigadoon! managed to stay faithful to the Apple TV+ series while streamlining plot points and characters, and swapping in songs that made the show a better vehicle for the stage.

 


Best Revival of a Play
Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Becky Shaw
, Gina Gionfriddo
Every Brilliant Thing
, Duncan Macmillan with Jonny Donahoe
Fallen Angels, 
Noël Coward, additional material by Claudia Shear
Oedipus
, Robert Icke

Wendy: Another strong category. I’m going with Death of a Salesman, though it wouldn’t surprise me if Oedipus won.

Liz: Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman. Come now, it’s fucking Death of a fucking Salesman–one that all the critics seem to have decided is perfect for this particular moment of hell–oops, history–that we’re moored in. The other productions don’t have a chance.

Sandra: Three for Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman. It won in 1984, 1999 and 2012 as Best Revival and Best Play in 1949. Five times is a charm.

 


Best Revival of a Musical
Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ragtime
Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show

Wendy: It certainly could go to Cats, but I’m predicting Ragtime.

Liz: Cats: The Jellicle Ball took the tiredest property and gave it depth and soul. This is clearly the work of geniuses who deserve a big prize.

Sandra: In 1996, Ragtime generated mixed feelings for me. The cast of Brian Stokes Mitchell, Marin Mazzie, Audra McDonald, Mark Jacoby, Judy Kaye, et. al.—well, sublime barely expresses the performances. But I felt lackluster about the overall production. This Ragtime seemed exciting, faster paced and absorbing, so I’m rooting for Ragtime.



Best Direction of a Play
Nicholas Hytner, Giant
Robert Icke, Oedipus
Kenny Leon, The Balusters
Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Whitney White, Liberation

Wendy: Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman. Most likely, but certainly not a shoo-in.

Liz: Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman. Liberation was such a triumph that I’m secretly rooting for a major upset, but I doubt that’ll happen.

Sandra: If I was a betting gal, I’d stake my kids' college funds on Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman.

 


Best Direction of a Musical
Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Lear deBessonet, Ragtime
Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!
Tim Jackson, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Wendy: It’s deBessonet versus Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch. I’m predicting Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball, but I sure wouldn’t bet on it.

Liz: Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball. See what I said about The Jellicle Ball above. This could go to deBessonet, whose Ragtime is wonderful–if not the bold reimagining Jellicle is.

Sandra: Hmmm… I’m with my blog colleagues; this is a toss-up between deBessonet and Levingston and Rauch. I dispute their Jellicle favoritism and choose Ragtime.



Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Play
Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels
Carrie Coon, Bug
Susannah Flood, Liberation
Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Kelli O’Hara, Fallen Angels

Wendy: In the Times, Helen Shaw makes a good case for giving this award to the wonderful Kelli O’Hara. But this is one I would bet on: Lesley Manville, Oedipus.

Liz: Lesley Manville, Oedipus. Tough one, especially since I can’t afford to see Fallen Angels. Coon was terrific in Bug, as was Flood in Liberation. But Manville was such a self-actualized, sane, take-no-shit Jocasta that I was fully convinced she’d breeze right past the big reveal. Oops.

Sandra: Lesley Manville, Oedipus. How about that? Three in agreement.

 


Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Play
Will Harrison, Punch
Nathan Lane, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
John Lithgow, Giant
Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing
Mark Strong, Oedipus

Wendy: Yet another strong category. I think Nathan Lane could win. I think John Lithgow will win. But if I had a vote, it would go to the extraordinary Will Harrison, whose performance in Punch was one of the best I’ve seen in decades of theatre-going.

Liz: Nathan Lane, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman. I wouldn’t mind seeing Lithgow take this for his slippery, manipulative, smugly bigoted Dahl. But attention must be paid, so I suspect this is Lane’s.

Sandra: John Lithgow, Giant. In some ways, I think Lane has the edge—after all, he’s playing the revered Willy Loman everyman character. That has natural cache. Still, Lithgow makes Roald Dahl charismatic and playful amid his abrasive combativeness and prejudices.

 



Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role in a Musical
Sara Chase, Schmigadoon!
Stephanie Hsu, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Marla Mindelle, Titaníque
Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

Wendy: I’m happy for Caissie Levy to win, but it makes me so sad that the late, fabulous, terribly missed Marin Mazzie did not win for the same role in the original production.

Liz: Caissie Levy, Ragtime Much love to Mindelle, whose hilariously loopy version of Celine Dion is one for the ages. But Levy has never looked or sounded as mature or grounded as she does here.

Sandra: Caissie Levy, Ragtime. I remember her in 2009’s Hair, singing “Good Morning Starshine.” It was my favorite song in the show. I’ll be happy to see her win the Tony.

   


Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role in a Musical
Nicholas Christopher, Chess
Luke Evans, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Sam Tutty, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime

Wendy: Joshua Henry, of course.

Liz: Joshua Henry, Ragtime. Nicholas Christopher is the best thing about Chess, but no actor seems as deeply connected to his role as Joshua Henry is to Coalhouse Walker. Henry’s always phenomenal–but he’s especially sublime in Ragtime.

Sandra: I should bet on this one. Joshua Henry becomes Coalhouse Walker. While Sam Tutty charmed and Nicholas Christopher’s voice is spectacular, Henry embodied every emotion in Ragtime, from joy to despair to rage.



Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Play
Betsy Aidem, Liberation
Marylouise Burke, The Balusters
Aya Cash, Giant
Laurie Metcalf, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
June Squibb, Marjorie Prime

Wendy: It’s highly likely that this is Laurie Metcalf’s Tony. I do wish that Betsy Aidem would win instead, but, oh, well.

Liz: Marylouise Burke, The Balusters. If I had my way, Aidem–whose Marge made a mean cheese ball–would win. I can see Squibb, the oldest Tony nominee in history, winning. Metcalf too. But I’m hoping this goes to Burke, not just for this terrific role but for her decades of stage work.

Sandra: C’mon Tony voters, go for June Squibb. She’s 96, did eight shows a week AND brought a moving combination of mischievousness and heartbreak to her dual role as a woman losing her memory and the AI companion that replaced her.



Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Play
Christopher Abbott, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Danny Burstein, Marjorie Prime
Brandon J. Dirden, Waiting for Godot
Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Richard Thomas, The Balusters

Wendy: Alden Ehrenreich seems to be the likely winner, which I regret. I found his performance one-note and uninteresting. Perhaps Christopher Abbott will slip in and win instead?

Liz: Brandon J. Dirden, Waiting for Godot. Truly, not a damn clue about this very strong category, even as I understand Ehrenreich is favored. But Dirden was dazzlingly unsettling in an otherwise largely missable Godot.

Sandra: I’m with Liz on this one: Brandon J. Dirden, Waiting for Godot. The moments he appeared on stage added swagger and energy to the time-is-passing-even-more-slower-than-usual version of Beckett’s play.

 



Best Performance by an Actress in a Featured Role in a Musical
Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
Hannah Cruz, Chess
Rachel Dratch, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon!
Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime

Wendy: I’m predicting Shoshana Bean here, partially for this performance and partially for all of her past performances as well.

Liz: Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon! I’m going with my gut here, even as Rachel Dratch needs simply to step onto a stage to reduce me to giggles. Maybe we can hope for an SNL alumna-themed tie?

Sandra: Wendy says it all in her prediction: Shoshana Bean.



Best Performance by an Actor in a Featured Role in a Musical
Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Lost Boys
André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Bryce Pinkham, Chess
Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime
Layton Williams, Titaníque

Wendy: I know that Ben Levi Ross does not have a lock on this award, but I think he can edge out André De Shields and win it.

Liz: Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime. No clue at all, except that there’s no way this will go to Pinkham.

Sandra: André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball. Who else can rock a lion's mane wig and purple suit with such elan. I believe it is Old Deuteronomy!

 


Best Book of a Musical
The Lost Boys, David Hornsby and Chris Hoch
Schmigadoon!, Cinco Paul
Titaníque; Marla Mindelle, Constantine Rousouli, and Tye Blue
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Jim Barne and Kit Buchan

Wendy: I predict Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Jim Barne and Kit Buchan, but I won’t be at all surprised if I’m wrong.

Liz: Schmigadoon!, Cinco Paul. Spoofing musicals successfully without punching down is contingent on knowing and honoring the material. Cinco Paul nails the landing with a score that skewers golden age Broadway from a place of deep knowledge and love.

Sandra: Titaníque. I want this to win on the creation story alone. Three friends drinking martinis in 2016 create a parody musical about James Cameron’s Titanic, weaving in Celine Dion’s catalog. It’s workshopped, runs off-Broadway and transfers to Broadway. Sounds like the storyline for another show—someone should get on this.

 


Best Original Score (Music and/or Lyrics) Written for the Theatre
Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman, Caroline Shaw
August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, Steve Bargonetti
The Lost Boys, The Rescues
Schmigadoon!, Cinco Paul
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York), Jim Barne and Kit Buchan

Wendy: I predict Schmigadoon!, Cinco Paul, but I won’t be at all surprised if I’m wrong.

Liz: Schmigadoon!, Cinco Paul. See what I said above. Love Shaw as I do, the Salesman sound design buried her contributions.

Sandra: Schmigadoon!, Cinco Paul. The Broadway crowd cannot resist all the IYKYK theatrical Easter eggs in the score and libretto.

 


Best Scenic Design of a Play
Hildegard Bechtler, Oedipus
Takeshi Kata, Bug
Chloe Lamford, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
David Korins, Dog Day Afternoon
David Rockwell, Fallen Angels

Wendy: Scenic design is always challenging to predict. There are so many different criteria that Tony voters may or may not be using. Here goes: Chloe Lamford, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman.

Liz: Takeshi Kata, Bug. Bug is best suited for a tinier, grubbier venue than the sumptuous Friedman, but Kata’s set–ever more crowded, disorderly, and reflective of the characters’ descent into drug-addled psychosis–was still enough to make a person up in the mezzanine itch.

Sandra: You had me at the red Chevrolet Chevelle Malibu. Chloe Lamford, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman.

 


Best Scenic Design of a Musical
dots, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Soutra Gilmour, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Rachel Hauck, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys
Scott Pask, Schmigadoon!

Wendy: Once again, design is tough to predict. I’m going with Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys.

Liz: Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys. I understand that there’s flying, many shadows, and much spookiness in this production.

Sandra: Dane Laffrey, The Lost Boys. To quote NYT reviewer Helen Shaw: “I watched this first scene with my hand pressed to my mouth, as if I were swooning in a Bram Stoker novel. If I hadn’t made it, my last words would have been, faintly, set design …”

 


Best Costume Design of a Play
Brenda Abbandandolo, Dog Day Afternoon
Qween Jean, Liberation
Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels
Emilio Sosa, The Balusters
Paul Tazewell, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone

Wendy: This prediction is pretty random, though I can say that I personally loved the costumes: Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels.

Liz: Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels. It’s Noel Coward, people. He dressed to the nines; his revivals should, too.

Sandra: Yep, it’s Jeff Mahshie, Fallen Angels.




Best Costume Design of a Musical
Linda Cho, Ragtime
Linda Cho, Schmigadoon!
Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ryan Park, The Lost Boys
David I. Reynoso, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show

Wendy: I’m going with Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball.

Liz: Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball. Sumptuous, beautiful, life-affirming, eye-popping costumes that the incredibly physical, hard-dancing cast can comfortably Ballroom in? No contest.

Sandra: Qween Jean, Cats: The Jellicle Ball. Leopard and tiger stripes? Fake fur and mesh? Athletic wear and sparkles? Just spectacular.

 


Best Lighting Design of a Play
Isabella Byrd, Dog Day Afternoon
Natasha Chivers, Oedipus
Stacey Derosier, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Heather Gilbert, Bug
Heather Gilbert, The Fear of 13
Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Wendy: Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Liz: Stacey Derosier, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone. Throwing a dart for this one.

Sandra: Jack Knowles, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman. Light acted as another character in the play: the piercing headlights of Willy’s car, how incandescent the young Biff always looked, the foreboding darkness that shrouded the stage.  I could go on and on.




Best Lighting Design of a Musical
Kevin Adams, Chess
Jane Cox, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Donald Holder, Schmigadoon!
Adam Honoré, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Adam Honoré and Donald Holder (Lighting Design) and 59 Studio (Projection Design), Ragtime
Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys

Wendy: Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys

Liz: Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys. I understand that there’s flying, many shadows, and much spookiness in this production.

Sandra: Jen Schriever and Michael Arden, The Lost Boys. Yeah, what Liz said.

 



Best Sound Design of a Play
Justin Ellington, August Wilson’s Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Tom Gibbons, Oedipus
Lee Kinney, The Fear of 13
Josh Schmidt, Bug
Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Wendy: Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman

Liz: Josh Schmidt, Bug. Another dart, but oof, that ringing phone…

Sandra: Mikaal Sulaiman, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman




Best Sound Design of a Musical
Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Kai Harada, Ragtime
Adam Fisher, The Lost Boys
Brian Ronan, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Walter Trarbach, Schmigadoon!

Wendy: Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Liz: Kai Harada, Ragtime. And a third dart.

Sandra: Kai Harada, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

 


Best Choreography
Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!
Ellenore Scott, Ragtime
Ani Taj, Richard O’Brien’s The Rocky Horror Show
Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant, The Lost Boys

Wendy: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Liz: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball. All the moves! All the grace! All the high heels! All the jumping up and landing in splits!

Sandra: Is this even a contest? Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball.

 


Best Orchestrations
Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, Schmigadoon!
Ethan Popp, Kyler England, Adrianne “AG” Gonzalez, and Gabriel Mann; The Lost Boys
Lux Pyramid, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Brian Usifer, Chess
Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder, and Doug Schadt; Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Wendy: Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder, and Doug Schadt; Cats: The Jellicle Ball

Liz: Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, Schmigadoon! One can never know, but no spoof of the golden age could reasonably succeed without solid orchestrations.

Sandra: Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder, and Doug Schadt; Cats: The Jellicle Ball. Let Sir Andrew Lloyd Webber get his eighth Tony.

 


by Wendy Caster, Sandra Mardenfeld, and Elizabeth Wollman